決策的本質︰解釋古巴導彈危機（英文版）

Preface
Introduction
1　Model I: The Rational Actor
　A Rigorous Model of Action
　A Rational Actor Paradigm
　The Classical Model Illustrated
　　Classical Realism. Neorealism (Structural Realism).
　　International Institutionalism. Liberalism. Strategy, War,
　　and Rational Choice.
　Variants and Uses of the Classical Model
2 The Cuban Missile Crisis: A First Cut
Why Did the Soviet Union Decide to Place Offensive Missiles in
Cuba?
　　 Hypothesis 1: Cuban Defense. Hypothesis 2: Cold War Politics.
　　 Hypothesis 3: Missile Power. Hypothesis 4: Berlin--Win,
　　 Trade, or Trap.
Why Did the United States Respond to the Missile Deployment
with a Blockade?
　　 Alternative I: Do Nothing. Alternative 2: Diplomatic
　　 Pressures. Alternative 3: A Secret Approach to Castro.
　　 Alternative 4: Invasion. Alternative 5: Air Strike.
　　 Alternative 6: Blockade.
Why Did the Soviet Union Withdraw the Missiles?
3　Model II: Organizational Behavior
　Organizational Logic and Efficiency
　Organizational Logic and Organizational Culture
　Interactive Complexity
　NASA: Hero and Goat
　Organizational Behavior Paradigm
4 The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Second Cut
　Deployment of Soviet Missiles in Cuba
　　The Soviet Build-up in Detail. Organizational
　　Implementation.
　Imposition of a U.S. Blockade of Cuba
　　Organizational Intelligence. Organizational Options.
　　Organizational Implementation.
　The Withdrawal of Soviet Missiles from Cuba
5 Model III: Governmental Politics
　The Governmental Politics Model Illustrated __
　　1. Separated Institutions Sharing Power. 2. The Power to
Persuade. 3. Bargaining According to the Processes. 4. Power
Equals Impact on Outcome. 5. Intranational and
International Relations.
　Group Processes and Their Effects on Choices and Action
　　1. Better Decisions. 2. The \〃Agency\〃 Problem: Principals,
Agents, and Players. 3. Participants: Who Plays? 4. Decision
　　Rules. 5. Framing Issues and Setting Agendas. 6. Groupthink.
　　7. Complexity of ]oint Action.
　A Governmental Politics Paradigm
6 The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Third Cut
The Imposition of a Blockade by the United States
　　 The Politics of Discovery. The Politics of Choice.
Soviet Withdrawal of the Missiles from Cuba
　　 Soviets Kill an American U-2 Pilot. The President and the
　　 Chairman. The \〃Deal\〃: Resolving the Turkish Problem.
　　 The \〃Deal\〃: Resolving the Cuban Problem.
7 Conclusion
Summing Up: Differences in Interpretation
Summing Up: Different Answers or Different Questions?
Where Do We Go from Here?
Index